While Trump has publicly chastised Volodymyr Zelensky for disregarding directives to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, experts suggest the geopolitical math is more complex. Julien Mathonniere of Energy Intelligence notes that Ukrainian strikes account for roughly one-third of the global diesel shortfall. However, the most significant disruption stems from the Middle East, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran has choked off critical transit routes for oil and gas.
The logistical damage within Russia remains substantial. Viktor Kurilov of Rystad Energy reports that Russian net diesel exports plummeted by 80 percent in the third quarter of 2026, dropping to 200,000 barrels per day. This supply collapse forced Moscow to implement an export ban, further tightening the global market. Despite Trump’s recent move to lift certain sanctions to allow Russian diesel imports, analysts remain skeptical that such measures can provide immediate relief. Jorge Leon, also of Rystad Energy, warns that infrastructure repairs are time-consuming and the broader regional instability in the Middle East will likely keep prices elevated well past the upcoming November elections.
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