Hormuz Is Open, but Shipping and Energy Supplies Remain at Risk

Gulf exports of crude oil and petroleum products fell from 18.9 million barrels a day in September to 17.1 million in October, Reuters reported on November 3. The figures are preliminary: some tankers have stopped broadcasting their locations to avoid being targeted. October exports were still well above levels during the worst of the fighting, but the recovery stalled.

Ship traffic remains far below its pre-war pace. The Washington Post reported that at least 30 ships crossed the strait each day in October, compared with more than 130 before the war. At least 25 ships were hit that month and two sank, according to the report. Iran has warned vessels against using routes it has not approved, Reuters reported. US escorts can protect individual crossings, but attacks and the threat of further strikes have kept many private operators away.

The cost of passage is another obstacle. In July, S&P Global reported that war-risk insurance premiums for some vessels had reached 7.5% to 10% of a ship’s value. Those are not current rates, but they illustrate why resumed traffic does not mean a return to normal trade: higher shipping costs can feed through to importers.

The political outlook is unsettled. Reuters reported on November 2 that US forces carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island, near Hormuz. Qatar is trying to sustain negotiations, but Washington and Tehran remain divided over sanctions and the US blockade of Iranian oil. A new breakdown could put tanker movements at risk again.

Damaged LNG capacity leaves a longer supply gap

Even a fully open strait would not restore all Gulf energy exports. Qatar’s LNG requires specialised vessels, and strikes also damaged production facilities. QatarEnergy said in March that attacks had disrupted 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity; repairs could take three to five years.

Italy’s Edison has not received contracted Qatari LNG since April. In late October, Reuters reported that QatarEnergy had extended its suspension of deliveries until year’s end. Edison has sourced replacement cargoes and says it can meet its obligations, but the interruption continues to affect European companies.

Asian buyers face greater direct exposure. The International Energy Agency says almost 90% of LNG shipped through Hormuz in 2025 went to Asian markets. Japan and South Korea rely heavily on imported energy, while Bangladesh, India and Pakistan together received almost two-thirds of their LNG imports through the strait. Bangladesh’s state gas company has sought replacement cargoes; its chairman told Reuters the effort was putting serious pressure on its finances.

Europe obtained around 7% of its LNG imports through Hormuz in 2025, according to the IEA, but competition for other supplies links it to Asian demand. Reuters reported on November 2 that US LNG exports to Europe rose sharply in October, as European and Asian gas prices both stood at about $28 per million British thermal units. The EU’s ban on Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027, adding another supply change for buyers to manage. The strait is open to some shipping, but attacks, damaged capacity and uncertain diplomacy continue to threaten energy deliveries.