Trump’s Midterm Setback May Renew North Korea Diplomacy—But Kim Has Less to Gain

Trump’s Republican Party lost ground in the midterms, giving Democrats control of Congress. Analysts say the result could narrow his room to manoeuvre at home while increasing his interest in shaping his foreign-policy legacy, particularly in Asia. The White House has rejected the suggestion that Trump’s decisions are politically motivated, saying he acts in the interests of American security and the public.

Trump and Kim met three times during his first presidency, after a period of escalating rhetoric and fears of military confrontation. Their 2019 summit ended without an agreement: Washington and Pyongyang could not resolve their differences over North Korea’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief. Ban Kil-joo, a professor of international relations at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said Trump may give foreign policy more attention as domestic opposition constrains him. The prospect of a diplomatic achievement that could benefit a future Republican successor may also be a factor.

Kim, however, has less incentive to engage. North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile capabilities over the past seven years, while closer ties with Russia and China have strengthened its position. Kim has indicated he might consider talks if Washington dropped its demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, a longstanding US objective. His sister, Kim Yo Jong, has called dialogue a possible route to peace but said there is no current need for Pyongyang to resume negotiations. North Korea’s lack of response ahead of a regional summit in China this month has further dimmed expectations of an imminent meeting.

The stakes extend to US allies. South Korea and Japan worry that Trump could strike a deal without adequate consultation, potentially accepting limits on North Korea’s nuclear programme while leaving its existing arsenal intact. Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, warned that setting aside denuclearisation could weaken regional deterrence and create divisions among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. A senior Japanese official has also raised concern that the two allies could be excluded from negotiations, potentially with the tacit support of Beijing and Moscow.

North Korea’s expanded arsenal—including missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, modern warships and submarines, and improved drones—makes denuclearisation more difficult. Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at Sophia University in Japan, warned that accepting North Korea’s nuclear status could fundamentally change Asia’s security environment and affect alliance cooperation and the international non-proliferation framework.

Any agreement would also face political constraints in Washington. A Democratic-controlled Congress could challenge major concessions on sanctions or US security commitments. Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University and former presidential adviser on national security, said Pyongyang would assess whether Trump could secure congressional support. If Kim sees him as a lame duck unable to ensure a successor honours an agreement, negotiations may hold little appeal. Stephen Biegun, who led US talks with North Korea as deputy secretary of state during Trump’s first term, has likewise argued that Pyongyang has limited incentives to join another summit. Renewed talks remain possible, but without meaningful compromises and a clear reason for Kim to engage, a meeting could produce little beyond political symbolism. (With information from Reuters.)