Rapidan Energy sees 80% chance of renewed U.S. action on Iran

Brent crude is trading at about $100 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is near $91. Prices had risen above $100 before the midterms as markets assessed uncertainty over the Iran conflict and the prospect of further U.S. strikes.

President Donald Trump had said he would not attack Iran before the elections. The Wall Street Journal later reported that Washington had conducted limited strikes, citing U.S. officials. McNally told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that Trump was determined to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while Tehran was unwilling to give up its nuclear capabilities. That gap, he said, keeps the risk of escalation in place.

Other analysts see possible room for renewed action, though not all expect escalation. In a Nov. 4 note, Lombard Odier chief economist Samy Chaar and head of investment strategy Luca Bindelli said the period before the new Congress is sworn in could offer Trump a window to resume strikes. They added that U.S. munitions constraints could limit the duration and effectiveness of a campaign.

Julius Baer’s Norbert Rücker said investors had become “more convinced” that the end of the midterms could open a diplomatic path instead. Reuters reported Friday, citing a senior Iranian official, that Tehran had sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar. Iran said discussions could begin only after the U.S. met seven demands, including ending what Tehran called acts of aggression and economic warfare, lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports and releasing Iranian assets. In return, Iran would allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. The official said Washington was reviewing the proposal but gave no further details.

Separately, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized Vice President JD Vance after Vance blamed the war for Republican losses in the midterms. In a post on X, Ghalibaf called Vance’s response “losing gambler energy” and accused the Trump administration of preparing another phase of conflict. Vance had written on Nov. 4 that “the reason we lost is the war,” citing a pollster’s finding that ending it was the leading concern among former Trump voters who switched to Democrats. Cost of living and inflation were also concerns. The conflict has contributed to higher global energy costs and added to inflation worries.