New Zealand election hinges on smaller parties and coalition talks

Advance voting began on October 26, and polling stations on election day close at 7 p.m. local time. Under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system, Parliament normally has 120 seats: 71 electorate seats and 49 party-list seats allocated according to each party’s share of the vote. A party can win more electorate seats than its proportional share would otherwise provide, creating an overhang and increasing Parliament’s size.

If no party commands a majority, leaders negotiate a coalition or a confidence-and-supply agreement, in which a smaller party supports a government on confidence votes and budget matters without necessarily joining the cabinet. The party with the most votes does not automatically govern; it must secure enough parliamentary support. Talks can take days or weeks.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led coalition has indicated it is prepared to work again with ACT and New Zealand First. Labour could seek an alternative arrangement with the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori. The Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, may also matter if the seat count is close, though Luxon has ruled out working with it. The final balance could shape which bloc can govern.

Preliminary results will offer an early picture, but the official count, scheduled for November 27, includes overseas votes and ballots cast outside voters’ electorates. Those votes have previously changed seat distributions. After the 2023 election, National, ACT and New Zealand First took 41 days to sign their governing agreement; a similar wait is possible if the result remains uncertain.

The campaign has focused on household costs, including inflation, petrol, food and housing, as well as healthcare, unemployment, wage growth and the pace of recovery. The next government will also face a structural budget deficit and rising public debt while weighing spending against investment in services. Other dividing issues include Māori relations and the Treaty of Waitangi, climate and energy policy, and New Zealand’s security ties with Western partners alongside its economic relationship with China, its largest trading partner.