The reports draw from the world’s largest pool of credit risk statistics, managed by the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation. By aggregating records dating back to 1984 for sovereign debt and 1994 for private lending, the consortium aims to replace broad market assumptions with specific evidence regarding regional, sectoral, and currency-based performance.
Beyond basic default metrics, the updated analysis provides deeper insight into contract-lifetime performance and resolution strategies. The sovereign report notably incorporates unresolved default events for the first time, providing a more accurate reflection of risk in lower-income and emerging economies. EIB Group Chief Risk Officer Román Escolano noted that these longitudinal records are essential for mobilizing private capital, as they offer the transparency required to assess long-term sustainability.
A pilot study on credit spreads provides an additional layer of market context. Examining data from 2006 to 2025, the analysis identified an average total spread of 3.77%. IFC Chief Risk Officer Federico Galizia highlighted this pilot as a critical tool for investors, noting that it allows market participants to better weigh potential returns against the realities of repayment risk when co-investing with development finance institutions. The full datasets are currently available via the Bloomberg Terminal and the World Bank Group’s Data360 portal.
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