US and Iran Negotiate Phased Exit from Hormuz Standoff

The path to an agreement remains obstructed by a mutual refusal to surrender leverage. Each side views its primary tool—the US economic blockade and the Iranian control of the global energy chokepoint—as essential to forcing a favorable outcome. A senior Iranian official suggested that a step-by-step arrangement, potentially including access to frozen assets, offers the most realistic route to ending the current impasse.

However, the timeline is compressed by the November 3 midterm elections. Former US negotiator Dennis Ross estimates only a 30 percent chance of a deal before the vote, noting that the pressure on Iran is intense, yet the political incentives for President Donald Trump to stabilize oil prices and domestic gasoline costs remain high. While Tehran prepares for the possibility of renewed military engagement, regional sources indicate a willingness to move contentious issues, such as transit fees, into side agreements to prioritize immediate relief. The central tension persists: Washington demands pressure produce concessions, while Tehran insists on relief as a prerequisite for any meaningful shift in strategy.