Central Asia Caught in the AI Crossfire

Washington is signaling a shift toward a binary world order, pressuring 35 partner nations to choose between U.S.-led technology initiatives and competing Chinese frameworks. For Central Asian states, however, the invitation to join the 'Pax Silica' initiative against Chinese-linked AI ecosystems threatens a long-standing strategy of multi-vector diplomacy.

Editorial·September 20, 2026·reads: 1,340

The U.S. State Department’s draft letter marks a transition from viewing AI as a commercial sector to treating it as a strategic ecosystem. By grouping semiconductors, energy, and data infrastructure under the umbrella of security, Washington aims to curb China’s influence. Yet, for countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the choice is not merely political; it is an economic imperative. These nations rely on Beijing for infrastructure and capital just as they look to the West for advanced research and venture funding.

Uzbekistan, in particular, has seen its ties with China deepen, with over 6,000 Chinese-backed companies now operating in the country and bilateral trade reaching $18 billion in 2025. Tashkent is unlikely to abandon this foundation for an 'either-or' ultimatum. Instead, regional governments are expected to push back by framing the issue in technical terms, seeking to distinguish between non-sensitive commercial applications and critical national security infrastructure. By demanding clarity on which specific technologies are restricted, they aim to preserve their strategic flexibility. The most effective path for Central Asia remains a pragmatic middle ground: diversifying suppliers to avoid vendor lock-in while building domestic capabilities to ensure that foreign competition bolsters their own sovereignty rather than eroding it.