A Blueprint for Gulf Stability Through Inclusive Dialogue

The current international order is buckling under the weight of geopolitical competition and a fixation on zero-sum power dynamics. While the post-Cold War era once promised a trajectory of cooperation, the subsequent decay of disarmament mechanisms and the rise of nationalist policies have left global security increasingly fragile. Zannier argues that the breakdown of dialogue is not a failure of institutional design, but a deficiency in political will, noting that even within the OSCE, consensus has become elusive as member states prioritize national security imperatives over collective stability.

To navigate this, Zannier advocates for a recalibrated approach to regional security, specifically in the Gulf. He suggests that the ongoing Muscat Process, supported by a Group of Friends, offers a pragmatic path forward. By fostering an inclusive dialogue among all eight Gulf littoral states—including Iran and Iraq—the region could move beyond the limitations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which primarily serves like-minded nations. Similar to the OSCE’s founding logic, this framework would focus on shared interests, such as freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than attempting to resolve deep-seated ideological conflicts immediately. Success, however, remains contingent on regional actors taking the lead, with the UN providing the necessary legitimacy for these subregional efforts to thrive.