The Gulf Cooperation Council nations—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—form the backbone of American military infrastructure in the Middle East. Despite providing logistical support during the recent four-month war, these leaders now view the interim memorandum of understanding with deep skepticism. Critics argue the deal, signed by President Donald Trump last week, grants Tehran excessive concessions, including a $300 billion reconstruction fund that neighbors fear will finance military expansion and proxy instability.
Rubio must navigate this tension without undermining the administration’s official policy. While some Republican lawmakers label the accord a capitulation, former National Security Council official Andrew Peek suggests the Secretary of State should emphasize Trump’s history of hawkishness. The strategy: frame the deal as a choice for Iran, implying that any failure to adhere to the terms will result in a swift return to military strikes.
For regional monarchies, the stakes remain existential. Bahrain’s leadership worries that a fortified Iran could exploit internal sectarian divisions, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait fear the agreement effectively hands Tehran leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. With Vice President JD Vance signaling a potential "fundamental transformation" of U.S.-Iran relations, Gulf states are questioning whether their long-standing security alliance with Washington is being quietly rewritten.
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