Flavio Bolsonaro gambles on hard-line security to revive political bid

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is betting his political survival on a aggressive public safety agenda, unveiling a 12-point plan in Sao Paulo that reclassifies major criminal factions as terrorist organizations. He seeks to reclaim momentum ahead of the October election, where he currently trails incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Editorial·June 18, 2026·reads: 2,897

The proposed strategy centers on neutralizing the Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital, groups that dictate criminal activity across large regions of Brazil. During the presentation, the senator vowed that armed criminals would be hunted down with force, promising to lower the penal age to 16 and construct five new maximum-security prisons dubbed Treva. This platform draws inspiration from El Salvador’s aggressive incarceration model and follows the senator’s recent success in lobbying Washington to designate these Brazilian factions as foreign terrorist organizations.

This security-first pivot arrives as his polling numbers falter. A recent CNT/MDA survey shows him trailing Lula 49.3% to 36.8%, a gap widened by public fallout over his admission of receiving funds from a disgraced banker to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. While the senator frames his plan as a necessary shift to restore public order, the move has triggered friction. President Lula has condemned the international involvement as foreign interference, while legal experts caution that the terrorist designation may create unpredictable risks for businesses operating within the country.