The path to a comprehensive settlement remains obstructed by the unresolved status of Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile. While President Donald Trump demands its total removal or destruction, Tehran maintains its right to enrichment, leaving negotiators to hunt for a compromise moratorium that has remained elusive for years. Beyond the nuclear file, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—the global artery for one-fifth of the world’s oil—poses a fresh management challenge. Though the US insists on a toll-free waterway, Iran continues to assert its authority over the channel, creating a volatile friction point that threatens to undermine the fragile ceasefire.
Domestic and regional pressures further complicate the timeline. The US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner, faces the daunting task of securing a deal within a two-month window—a fraction of the time consumed by the 2015 nuclear agreement. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled that Israel remains unbound by any US-Iran pact, particularly regarding Lebanon. With Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei steering a hardline course and Trump under pressure to stabilize domestic gasoline prices, both sides are effectively racing against the risk of renewed hostilities should these talks stall.





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