The downturn stems largely from underperformance in copper mining, agriculture, and fishing, compounded by a cooling in inbound tourism throughout the summer months. Despite the 2026 contraction, the bank struck a more optimistic tone for 2027, lifting its growth projection to between 2.0% and 3.0% on the back of an improved investment outlook.
Inflationary pressures also remain a focus, with the bank nudging its 2026 average forecast to 3.7% and year-end projections to 4.2%. Officials point to rising fuel costs driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict as the primary catalyst for the uptick, though they maintain that consumer prices should return to the 3% target by the second quarter of 2027. Amid these fluctuations, the bank upgraded its copper price outlook, projecting values of $5.8 per pound for 2026, $5.2 for 2027, and $5.0 for 2028, citing resilient global demand.
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