Shangri-La Dialogue reveals widening gap between US and ASEAN

Secretary Hegseth dismissed the current rules-based international order as a mere distraction, arguing that alliances must be grounded in power and military readiness rather than traditional diplomacy. This call for increased combat power places Southeast Asian nations in a precarious position, as many remain committed to the 2018 U.N. norms of responsible state behavior. Conversely, ASEAN leadership continues to emphasize that lasting stability cannot be achieved through force alone. Both Vietnam’s President To Lam and Timor-Leste’s President Ramos-Horta reinforced this sentiment, labeling preventive diplomacy as a vital strategic capability rather than a secondary concern.

Strategic friction in Southeast Asia

The Philippines remains the notable exception to this regional consensus, aligning closely with Washington’s focus on military buildup due to ongoing maritime disputes with China. For the rest of the bloc, the challenge is twofold: balancing necessary military modernization with economic development while navigating the competing demands of the U.S. and China. Indonesia’s Lieutenant General Bambang Trisnohadi highlighted the fear that a conflict over Taiwan could trigger a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Malacca, an outcome that would devastate regional stability regardless of which major power prevails.

Singapore’s Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing concluded the summit with a firm reminder that the region is neither pro-U.S. nor pro-China, but strictly pro-ASEAN. However, as global instability mounts, the bloc's long-standing aspiration to remain a zone of peace and neutrality faces its most significant test. The widening gap between the U.S. push for hard-power alignment and the ASEAN preference for diplomatic off-ramps suggests that the region will struggle to remain a neutral ground if the major powers continue to prioritize their own strategic interests over regional cohesion.