Alcohol Industry Braces for Decade of Shrinking Global Demand

A steady rise in the global population of legal-age drinkers will fail to bolster the alcohol market over the next decade. According to a new IWSR forecast, total consumption is set to remain below current levels until 2031, as shifting habits and health trends fundamentally alter how the world drinks.

Editorial·June 11, 2026·reads: 2,471

The outlook marks a significant pivot for industry titans like Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which have already grappled with contracting sales since 2023. This downturn is driven by a convergence of economic pressure, rising health consciousness, and the unintended impact of popular weight-loss medications on consumer appetites. While India is emerging as a critical growth engine—poised to become the world's second-largest drinks market behind China—it is not enough to offset the broader contraction.

By 2035, the number of legal-age drinkers is projected to grow by 9%, yet total alcohol volumes are expected to remain 1% lower than current figures. This translates to an average annual per capita decline equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a full case of wine. As canned cocktails siphon market share from traditional beer, wine, and spirit categories, producers face an urgent need to restructure their portfolios to match a consumer base that is drinking less and choosing differently.