Indonesia's Nickel Surge Hits a Wall

Indonesia's relentless expansion of nickel production is finally stalling, yet the global market shows few signs of cooling. While the supply glut persists, the locus of the metal is shifting decisively toward China, where stockpiles have doubled since the beginning of the year, leaving Western producers struggling to find their footing.

Editorial·June 10, 2026·reads: 2,917

The volatility in the nickel market is compounded by acute operational failures in the West. The Ambatovy mine in Madagascar remains sidelined by cyclone damage, and Sherritt International faces mounting pressure from U.S. sanctions affecting its Cuban operations. These disruptions have effectively tightened the supply chain outside of Asia, forcing a migration of refined nickel stocks toward the East.

Chinese warehouses are absorbing the surplus, with imports of refined nickel maintaining a aggressive pace. Despite the anticipated tapering of Indonesian output, the sheer volume of metal already sitting in London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange facilities suggests the transition will be anything but swift. The market remains locked in a slow, grinding adjustment as global inventories continue to test new highs, signaling that the era of oversupply is far from over.