Post-MINURSO: Morocco and the New Reality of Western Sahara

The failure to renew the mission followed a sharp divide in the Security Council. A U.S.-backed draft, which sought to pivot toward a special political mission centered on Morocco’s autonomy proposal, was blocked by a Russian veto. Simultaneously, a Russian alternative aimed at maintaining the status quo failed to gain sufficient support. This diplomatic collapse leaves the region without an established mechanism for field verification, creating a security vacuum that Morocco now intends to fill through enhanced surveillance and strengthened military readiness.

Strategic Shifts and Regional Security

The collapse of the U.N. framework forces a move away from the management of a frozen conflict toward a new, proactive reality. For Rabat, the priority is the rapid integration of the southern provinces into the Kingdom’s broader African and Atlantic strategies, including the development of the Dakhla Atlantic port and the Sahel-to-Atlantic infrastructure initiatives. While the Polisario Front has previously signaled a return to armed struggle, the changing landscape—compounded by Algeria’s recent military deployment in northern Niger—suggests that regional stability will increasingly depend on individual state security doctrines rather than international oversight. As the U.N. era ends, the focus shifts to whether the proposed autonomy model can provide the political and institutional guarantees necessary to replace the defunct 1991 ceasefire arrangements.