The study, which employed the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation model, evaluated how varying release volumes and terrain slopes dictate the impact of potential ice slides. While findings indicate that high-mobility scenarios produce the most severe outcomes, the variance between low and high-mobility projections remains relatively narrow across all studied parameters, including flow velocity and deposition depth.
Site 2 poses the most significant threat to local stability. Under high-mobility conditions, this location could jeopardize 398 structures, 2.66 kilometers of transportation infrastructure, and over 19 hectares of agricultural and forest land. Crucial facilities, including a local helipad and parking areas, fall directly within the predicted exposure zones. The authors emphasize that terrain features and channel shapes—rather than just the volume of ice—play a decisive role in determining how far an avalanche travels.
Given the town's status as a major pilgrimage destination, the research team advocates for immediate, site-specific hazard mapping and the implementation of robust early warning systems. They suggest that stricter land-use planning and community education are essential to mitigating the risks posed by shifting glacial conditions in the central Himalayas.





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