Unequal Growth: Why ASEAN’s Economic Gains Are Leaving Many Behind

The analysis, published in the journal Economies, challenges the assumption that international integration and GDP growth automatically foster inclusive development. While trade openness remains a pillar of regional industrial expansion, the researchers found that a one-percentage-point increase in trade as a share of GDP correlates with a 0.0142-point rise in the Gini index. This suggests that the fruits of global supply chains often accrue to capital owners and high-skilled labor, while less competitive sectors struggle with wage stagnation and displacement.

Energy volatility acts as a secondary catalyst for inequality. High costs for fuel and electricity disproportionately strain low-income households, who spend a larger share of their earnings on essentials. The study suggests that instead of blunt universal subsidies, governments should deploy time-limited cash transfers and lifeline tariffs to protect the most vulnerable.

Human capital stands out as the most potent tool for narrowing these gaps, with a 0.1-point improvement in the human-capital index linked to a 1.497-point decline in the Gini index. However, the authors caution that education and training must be equitable to work; when quality schooling is restricted to affluent populations, it merely reproduces existing hierarchies. To ensure long-term stability, ASEAN nations must move beyond simple growth metrics and integrate social protections directly into their trade and energy strategies, ensuring that the benefits of regional prosperity are not confined to geographically limited or capital-intensive sectors.