Matteo Salvini’s Slump Clouds Meloni’s Path to Re-election

The League’s downward trajectory has accelerated following the launch of Futuro Nazionale, a breakaway party that is siphoning off disgruntled right-wing voters. While Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party maintains robust public support, her broader coalition is increasingly vulnerable. Recent data suggests that the combined strength of the governing alliance now trails the center-left opposition, exposing a critical weakness in the coalition's electoral math.

Salvini’s personal standing has suffered as his role as transport minister became synonymous with persistent rail disruptions and stalled infrastructure projects, such as the Sicily bridge. Furthermore, the political landscape has shifted; voters have traded their fixation on immigration for immediate economic anxieties like inflation and energy costs. As internal dissent mounts, party figures like Luca Zaia and Massimiliano Fedriga are frequently cited as potential replacements for a leader whose anti-establishment appeal has withered under the realities of long-term governance. With regional contests looming as a litmus test, the League must pivot toward economic policy or risk forcing a leadership change before the national vote.