While U.S. officials maintain the critical waterway remains operational, vessel tracking data indicates a complete cessation of tanker traffic since Saturday afternoon. Iran’s military sources confirmed that transit permits have been suspended, signaling that the blockade will persist until hostilities in Lebanon cease and long-sought oil export waivers are granted. This standoff threatens to reverse the recent decline in global oil prices, which had retreated following last week’s memorandum of understanding.
Inside the Buergenstock resort, the delegation led by Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf faces a narrow agenda. Tehran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, indicated that discussions are restricted to implementing the existing memorandum rather than advancing broader negotiations, largely due to the ongoing Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon. With 20 deaths reported in Lebanon on Saturday and local authorities struggling to clear unexploded ordnance, the pressure on the negotiating teams from Qatar and Pakistan to mediate a tangible breakthrough remains immense. Despite the optimism expressed by Vance prior to his departure, the disconnect between the diplomatic summit and the reality on the ground—where nearly 92% of Israelis now doubt the efficacy of the joint campaign—casts a long shadow over the proceedings.




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