Iran’s Revolutionary Guard pivots to covert cells in Iraq

Between April 20 and May 17, these clandestine groups executed at least seven drone attacks targeting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Operating from desert launch sites near Basra and Samawa, the units consist of roughly 10 elite fighters each. While some members were recruited from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the new cells function independently of that umbrella organization’s command structure.

This shift reflects Iran’s need to preserve its influence as its traditional proxy networks face depletion. With major factions like Asaib Ahl al-Haq signaling a willingness to disarm to avoid direct conflict with the administration of Donald Trump, the IRGC has moved to more ideologically hardened, tightly controlled cadres. Retired general Jasim al-Bahadli noted that this lean approach prioritizes loyalty and deniability over the mass recruitment tactics of the past.

Challenges for the Iraqi government

The emergence of these cells creates a volatile environment for Iraq’s new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, who is attempting to stabilize relations with Gulf states while navigating the influence of Tehran. Following a May 17 drone strike that caused a fire at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE, Gulf nations summoned Iraqi envoys to voice formal protests. Although Zaidi has condemned the strikes as criminal acts, his administration faces the difficult task of dismantling these shadow networks while Baghdad remains caught in the crossfire of regional power struggles.