European refugee numbers plateau after years of rapid growth

The stabilization follows a two-year decline in new asylum applications, which dropped to 770,000 in 2025 from a peak of 1.1 million in 2023. While the aggregate figure suggests a turning point, the situation varies significantly across borders. Germany, the continent's primary host, saw its refugee population shrink by 4.7%, driven largely by naturalization processes for Syrian and Iraqi nationals rather than mass departures. Italy recorded a sharper 17.9% decrease, contrasting with growth in France, Spain, and Britain.

Demographic shifts within the applicant pool are also reshaping the landscape. Following the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024, asylum filings from Syrians plummeted by more than 70%. Conversely, applications from Venezuelans climbed 24%, reaching 91,000. Despite these fluctuations, Ukrainians remain the largest demographic, representing nearly half of the total refugee and asylum-seeker population across the European Union and Britain. Tommaso Frattini, deputy director of the research institute, noted that the era of rapid growth appears to have concluded, providing a moment of demographic stasis for a continent where migration remains a volatile political flashpoint.