Global Trade Growth Cools as AI Demand Offsets Regional Turmoil

A cooling trend has emerged in global merchandise trade, with the World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer index slipping to 101.7 from January’s 102.3. While the index remains above the baseline, the data signals a deceleration from the robust growth seen throughout the previous year.

The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to weigh on international commerce, though the impact is currently being tempered by a surge in demand for AI-related electronic components. The barometer, which forecasts trade activity two to three months ahead, shows that while growth persists, the momentum is losing its previous strength.

Projections indicate that overall trade growth may slow to 1.9% in 2026, a sharp decline from the 4.6% recorded in 2025. Despite this cooling trend, specific sectors—namely electronics and container shipping—remain resilient, providing a necessary buffer against broader economic instability.