Climate X, a risk analytics firm, projects the financial impact of the incoming weather cycle will far exceed the state’s typical $500 million annual average for flood damages. This surge is fueled by a combination of atmospheric rivers and underwater Kelvin waves, which can lift sea levels by as much as 16 inches. Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the University of Washington, expects the next major wave to strike the coast by early October, compounding the vulnerability of shorelines already battered by heavy surf.
The physical toll is already visible. Earlier this month, remnants of storm Marie decimated beaches and seawalls in Orange County, forcing the demolition of oceanfront properties. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency on September 22 to accelerate levee repairs and infrastructure reinforcements. Local authorities are taking defensive measures as well; in Malibu, public safety officials are advising residents to stockpile weeks of supplies, warning that rock slides and mud floods could easily sever access to the coastal city.
Experts emphasize that areas scorched by recent wildfires face the highest danger. Erik Larson of Climate X noted that the loss of vegetation on slopes creates a direct path for flash floods and debris flows. With coastal erosion risks projected to climb by over two-thirds during this El Niño cycle, communities from San Diego to the northern reaches of the state are scrambling to fortify bluffs and widen drainage channels before the winter rains intensify.
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