Pakistan’s High-Stakes Gamble to Avert a Gulf Energy Crisis

The diplomatic mission places Islamabad in a precarious position. By leveraging Asim Munir’s personal ties to Donald Trump and maintaining open channels with Iran’s leadership, Pakistan hopes to create a buffer against the impending U.S. sanctions campaign. Washington’s strategy aims to force third-party nations, particularly China, to sever economic ties with Tehran; however, Iran has signaled that it will not suffer in isolation. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has explicitly threatened to halt oil exports from the Gulf if the economic offensive persists, turning the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile chokepoint.

The danger has already spilled beyond the Strait. A projectile strike on a tanker near Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu highlights the vulnerability of alternative shipping routes. With Tehran’s conventional military infrastructure battered but its missile and drone capabilities intact, the threat to commercial vessels is no longer theoretical. Pakistan and Oman are now scrambling to facilitate back-channel communication to clarify red lines before the conflict shifts from economic pressure to kinetic escalation. For Islamabad, the challenge is twofold: convincing Washington that its engagement is a stabilizing force rather than an evasion of sanctions, while navigating a regional landscape where a single miscalculation could trigger a global energy shock.