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Indian Aviation Trends: International Rebound Meets Domestic Slump

International passenger traffic for Indian carriers climbed 8 percent in August, signaling a potential recovery even as domestic demand falters. While overseas routes show sequential gains in load factors, airlines continue to grapple with persistent cost pressures from volatile fuel prices and a weakening rupee against the dollar.

Indian Aviation Trends: International Rebound Meets Domestic Slump

Brokerage firm Equirus reports that international revenue passenger kilometres rose 9 percent last month, with demand growth outpacing capacity expansion. This shift pushed the international passenger load factor to 77.2 percent, a 106-basis-point improvement. Despite these gains, international traffic volume remains 13 percent below the levels recorded last year.

Domestic operations face a stiffer challenge. Passenger traffic dropped 11 percent month-on-month to approximately 12 million, while capacity, measured by available seat kilometres, fell 9 percent. This contraction in supply failed to keep pace with the dip in demand, causing the domestic passenger load factor to retreat to 83.1 percent.

Operational costs remain a significant hurdle for the industry. Brent crude prices held at roughly USD 90.1 per barrel in August—a 32 percent year-on-year increase—while Singapore jet fuel prices surged 83 percent to USD 154.7 per barrel. The depreciation of the rupee to Rs 95.7 per US dollar further complicates the situation, inflating expenses for maintenance and aircraft leases.

IndiGo maintained its domestic dominance with a 67.2 percent market share, while Air India Group saw its domestic share slip to 24.2 percent. However, the competitive landscape is shifting as carriers rebalance their networks. Air India Group grew its international share to 43.2 percent, and Akasa Air reached 4.2 percent. Equirus suggests this reflects a strategic realignment of capacity rather than permanent structural shifts in the market.

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