Trump Claims Control of Hormuz as Shipping Patterns Shift

Traffic patterns through the region have undergone a sharp transformation in recent weeks. Data from MarineTraffic and Kpler reveal a significant uptick in vessels bypassing traditional routes in favor of the Omani shipping channel, a path authorized by the United Nations. Approximately 80 percent of the 213 vessels tracked over the past fortnight opted for this route, directly undermining Iran’s ability to levy transit fees. Analysts suggest that the expiration of a prior memorandum between Washington and Tehran has incentivized shippers to favor the US-protected path, despite persistent threats of Iranian retaliation against those ignoring their demands.

Beyond authorized channels, a shadow fleet of Very Large Crude Oil Carriers has emerged to sustain energy exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. By operating with transponders disabled, these vessels navigate the danger zone to transfer cargo in the Gulf of Oman, effectively circumventing Iranian surveillance. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently noted that combined transit volumes have surged to roughly 15 million barrels per day, narrowing the gap toward pre-war averages of 20 million barrels. While Iran maintains its claim over the strait, the combination of US naval presence and tactical rerouting has rendered Tehran’s enforcement increasingly ineffective.