The latest World Bank Economic Update warns that the nation’s post-pandemic recovery relies too heavily on volatile commodity markets and government infrastructure spending. Although the economy is projected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2026, the current model leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks and climate-related disasters. With public debt at 30 percent of GDP and cash reserves covering less than one month of expenditure, the government faces limited flexibility to maneuver when crises like Cyclone Maila strike.
Bernard Harborne, the World Bank’s Resident Representative, argues that the path to long-term stability requires shifting focus toward agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. These industries offer a more sustainable path to broad-based employment, particularly for rural and coastal communities. To bridge the gap, the report advocates for rigorous mining revenue management, comprehensive tax reform, and expanded access to finance for local firms. By reinvesting resource wealth into productive sectors, the government could transform a narrow mining boom into a resilient economy capable of supporting the next generation.




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