The Sequencing Deadlock Stalling Trump’s Gaza Roadmap

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the roadmap in its current form, maintaining that no Israeli soldier will vacate Gaza until the territory is stripped of all Hamas weaponry. Conversely, Hamas insists that disarmament must be a negotiated process occurring alongside an Israeli exit, rather than a prerequisite for it. Without a clear sequencing agreement, the proposal faces a structural impasse where both parties perceive the other’s terms as a demand for total capitulation.

To bridge this gap, the U.S. framework suggests a sector-by-sector withdrawal model. Under this approach, Israeli troops would retreat from specific zones only after those areas are verified as free of heavy weapons and tunnels. A new Palestinian technocratic administration would oversee the decommissioning process, supported by an International Stabilization Force. While Morocco, Uganda, Kosovo, Albania, and Kazakhstan have pledged personnel, the force’s efficacy remains untested in such a volatile security environment.

Ultimately, the plan struggles to decouple military disarmament from the broader political reality of Palestinian governance. Hamas views its remaining arsenal as critical leverage, while Israel views its military presence as the only barrier to a resurgence of the October 2023 assault. Success hinges on whether Washington can transform these competing demands into a phased bargain that provides both sides with verifiable security guarantees, preventing the roadmap from collapsing under the weight of mutual distrust.