ASEAN Needs a Unified Hedging Code

The latest State of Southeast Asia survey from Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute highlights this shift. A majority of respondents now lean toward China, fueled by deep-seated anxiety over the unpredictability of the current US administration. While concerns regarding Beijing’s conduct in the South China Sea remain acute, the perceived volatility of Washington’s transactional diplomacy has rendered the traditional American counterweight less dependable. Consequently, nations are pursuing individual survival strategies rather than a cohesive regional policy.

Indonesia is diversifying its arms procurement across France, Turkey, and South Korea while joining BRICS. Vietnam has secured a multi-million-dollar defense partnership with India, and the Philippines is aggressively negotiating trade deals with the European Union and Canada. These moves are defensible in isolation but collectively threaten to hollow out ASEAN’s value as a bloc. When hedging becomes strictly bilateral and improvised, the organization’s promise of collective influence becomes little more than a rhetorical convenience.

To reverse this fragmentation, ASEAN should formalize a hedging code of conduct. This begins with a standing consultation mechanism for defense and infrastructure agreements to ensure transparency among members. Furthermore, the bloc must establish an economic floor against coercion, ensuring no member state faces retaliation for its security choices. Finally, the 2027 review of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership provides an opportunity to codify multilateral digital and supply-chain rules. By transforming instinctive reactions into a unified strategy, the region could force both Beijing and Washington to engage with a stable, cohesive partner rather than exploiting a fractured assembly.